India Strategic Review
The ISR features an assessment of key developments, trends, and policies pertaining to India’s immediate and continental neighbourhood and is authored by Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow for Military Strategy.
Humanitarian distress has deepened in Afghanistan, with more than 23 million Afghans, over half the population, requiring assistance in 2026. International funding cuts have aggravated the crisis, leading to shortfalls in the delivery of food and health services. The United Nations has appealed for $1.71 billion to support the Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for 2026, an amount that far exceeds the $913 million received in 2025.
Pakistan-Afghanistan ties stayed tense due to cross-border incidents, including a December 5 exchange of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces at the Spin Boldak crossing. After repeated attacks on Pakistani posts near the border, Pakistan summoned Afghanistan’s deputy head of mission and demanded “decisive action” against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants.
The Afghanistan-Tajikistan border also saw heightened tensions after five Chinese nationals were killed and five injured in two cross-border attacks in late November. Following the attacks, the Chinese Embassy in Tajikistan urged its citizens to refrain from investing or working in the Tajik-Afghanistan border region.
Following the passage of the 27th Constitutional Amendment in November, Field Marshal Asim Munir was designated as Pakistan’s first Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) for a period of five years. In his first address after assuming the office of CDF, Munir railed against India, stating that Pakistan's response in case of any aggression by India would be swift and severe.
Former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed was sentenced to 14 years of rigorous imprisonment on charges that included engaging in political activities. Hameed was closely associated with former prime minister Imran Khan, and his prosecution is seen as part of the broader neutralisation of Imran-aligned networks.
Political tensions are rising after a trial court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, each to 17 years in prison for a corruption case stemming from violations of state gift repository rules. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered talks to the opposition, but a reconciliation appears unlikely.
Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia died on December 30, closing the chapter of the “battling Begums” rivalry with Sheikh Hasina that has dominated national politics for decades. The leadership of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) now passes to her son, Tarique Rahman, who returned to Bangladesh on December 26, after 17 years in exile.
Pre-poll alignments ahead of Bangladesh’s parliamentary election in February 2026 have coalesced into two competing blocs: a BNP-centred alliance and a Jamaat-centred Islamist coalition. The student-led National Citizen Party, struggling to translate street legitimacy into votes, has joined the Jamaat alliance, triggering a crisis within the party, with many senior leaders resigning.
The killing of youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi on December 12 led to mass protests across Bangladesh with an overtly anti-India mobilisation. Protestors attempted to march towards Indian diplomatic missions in Dhaka, Rajshahi, and Khulna, and the Indian Assistant High Commission in Chittagong was stoned. The lynching of a Hindu garment worker in Bangladesh led to protests in India and exacerbated the downturn in bilateral ties.
In the backdrop of the upcoming elections in Nepal in March 2026, there is a realignment of political party coalitions. Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah, a popular youth icon, has allied with the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which has promised him the prime ministership if the RSP wins. Ten communist parties have come together to form the unified Nepali Communist Party under the leadership of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, while the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress, the two largest parties in the dissolved House of Representatives, have hinted at a possible electoral alliance.
World Bank estimates put the physical damage caused by November’s Cyclone Ditwah at $4.1 billion, 4% of Sri Lanka's GDP. On December 23, Dr. S. Jaishankar, India’s Minister of External Affairs, visited Sri Lanka and proposed a $450 million assistance package to support the country's recovery.
To read this India Strategic Review, Vol. VI, Issue 12, please see the PDF attached.
