India Strategic Review
The ISR features an assessment of key developments, trends, and policies pertaining to India’s immediate and continental neighbourhood and is authored by Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow for Military Strategy.
Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions rose sharply during the past month, shifting from hostility to open military confrontation. On February 21, Pakistan launched cross-border airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, targeting camps and hideouts linked to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan Province. The Taliban responded with multiple border attacks, and by month-end Pakistan declared the situation an “open war.”
Even as cross-border fighting intensified, Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis continued to deteriorate. Nearly half the population is projected to require assistance in 2026, with 17.4 million people facing crisis-level food insecurity. The return of nearly 2.9 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan in 2025 has added to the stress on livelihoods, health systems, and humanitarian services.
Pakistan was active on several foreign policy fronts in February. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attended the inaugural Board of Peace meeting in Washington and held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Pakistan also expanded its outreach to Central Asia through the state visits of the Presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with connectivity projects linking Central Asia to Pakistani ports via Afghanistan remaining central to its regional strategy. At the same time, Pakistan’s Gulf diplomacy acquired a new security dimension after the US-Israel attacks on Iran, forcing Islamabad to balance condemnation of the strikes on Iran with expressions of solidarity for Gulf states targeted by Iranian retaliation.
Pakistan’s internal security situation remains grave. On January 31 and February 1, Baloch insurgents launched coordinated attacks across the province, killing 31 civilians and 17 security service personnel. In retaliation, security forces launched “Operation Raddul Fitna-1,” a week-long operation in which they claimed to have killed 216 insurgents. On February 6, a suicide bombing at the Shiite imambargah in Islamabad killed 38 people, with another 170 injured. This was the deadliest attack in Islamabad since the 2008 Marriott bombing.
In Bangladesh, the February 12 election produced a sweeping victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which won 209 of the 297 announced seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance emerged a distant second with 77 seats. The new government led by Tarique Rahman faces immediate challenges of economic recovery, restoring law and order, and strengthening governance. A dispute is also taking shape over the implementation of the July Charter, which calls for significant changes in the constitution. While supporting constitutional amendments in principle, the BNP is not fully committed to a framework initiated by the interim government.
The election has created an opening for a limited reset in India-Bangladesh ties. Prime Minister Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman soon after the result, and both sides have moved to restore working-level engagement, including the resumption of visa services. At the same time, old bilateral disputes such as the Teesta water-sharing issue remain unresolved. Furthermore, public sentiment on both sides had hardened during the Yunus regime, and Dhaka’s outreach to China and Pakistan will be closely watched in New Delhi.
Ahead of the March 5 elections in Nepal, the campaign has crystallised around the themes of governance failure, corruption, unemployment and youth outmigration. There are no reliable opinion polls, but reports suggest that Balendra Shah, a rapper turned mayor of Kathmandu, is the frontrunner for the post of the prime minister.
In Sri Lanka, the former intelligence chief Suresh Sallay was arrested in connection with the 2019 Easter bombings. Sallay is being investigated for permitting the attack to proceed with the intention of discrediting the ruling administration and influencing that year’s presidential election in favour of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Meanwhile, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the AI Impact 2026 Summit in New Delhi, signalling continued momentum in India-Sri Lanka ties.
To read this issue, please click India Strategic Review, Vol. VII, Issue 2.
