DPG Policy Brief
India-Russia Relations: The Geostrategic Perspective
Date: July 27, 2024
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia on July 8-9, 2024, the first bilateral visit of his third term in office, has drawn unfavourable comments in the West - from its timing to its symbolism - which have been strongly refuted by India.
In this policy brief, the authors take a deep dive into the geostrategic perspective and the bilateral drivers that underpin the continuing importance of India-Russia relations.
Prevailing geopolitical trends - from the US-China multi-domain competition to the West’s confrontation with Russia and the resulting China-Russia strategic nexus - have major implications for India. Even as India is incrementally drawing closer to the West, it cannot overlook the value of stable and mutually beneficial ties with Russia. Furthermore, a close partnership of both the US and Russia with India provides each of them the leverage to constrain and balance China.
This brief traces the evolution of the historical relationship between India and Russia in recent years, amidst geopolitical tensions that are pulling the two nations in opposite directions.
The Modi-Putin summit was motivated by the need to address emerging issues in bilateral relations, as also the global trends that are impacting them. Its outcomes affirmed a shared intention to further progress bilateral relations in the areas of trade, energy and defence. The defence partnership will be reoriented to focus on joint research, co-development and joint production, providing India with an important hedge against the backdrop of its growing defence ties with the US and France.
The authors then go on to analyse the geopolitical dynamics impacting India-Russia relations, from the India-US-Russia triad to the Russia-China-India equation.
They argue that the persisting US insecurity over India-Russia relations is driven largely by an unmitigated antagonism towards Russia, which may well be further exacerbated as the Western allies face setbacks in Ukraine. In their efforts to restrict India’s foreign policy choices, the US and the collective West under-appreciate the benefits of their growing engagement with India. In the light of the disturbed and volatile global environment, India cannot afford to predicate its Russia policy on Western interests and insecurities. The converse reality is that if the West really wants to weaken the strengthening Russia-China axis, it must also encourage India to keep its ties with Russia open and positive.
The Russia-China-India equation is a more complex triangular relationship, one in which harbouring relations with one threatens to disrupt partnership between the others. The continuing economic and security distress in Europe, meanwhile, preoccupies the West, drains Russia’s strength, and furthers China’s strategic interests. There is a marked dissonance over India in Russia-China relations. A weakened Russia that is over-dependent on China is not in India’s interest; India must continue to provide Russia with a vital hedge.
The authors conclude that at an impasse dominated by US-China bipolar competition, Russia is a key balancing power and India must not forsake its own strategic interests because of the West’s antipathy towards Russia. If the West can act in its own interests to shape accommodative ties with China, it has no reason to expect considerations to be any different for India’s engagement with Russia. Furthermore, recent initiatives of Russia in East Asia are designed to carve out its own strategic space in China’s immediate periphery, while Russia’s role is also significant in projecting the narrative of the Global South and leveraging an expanded BRICS.
Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that the US attempt to define the longstanding India-Russia partnership as one where New Delhi is beholden to Russia is misplaced; India too holds its own strategic cards. It is more important than ever for the West to look beyond its self-serving narratives and grasp this reality.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. IX, Issue 17, please click “India-Russia Relations: the Geostrategic Perspective”.
In this policy brief, the authors take a deep dive into the geostrategic perspective and the bilateral drivers that underpin the continuing importance of India-Russia relations.
Prevailing geopolitical trends - from the US-China multi-domain competition to the West’s confrontation with Russia and the resulting China-Russia strategic nexus - have major implications for India. Even as India is incrementally drawing closer to the West, it cannot overlook the value of stable and mutually beneficial ties with Russia. Furthermore, a close partnership of both the US and Russia with India provides each of them the leverage to constrain and balance China.
This brief traces the evolution of the historical relationship between India and Russia in recent years, amidst geopolitical tensions that are pulling the two nations in opposite directions.
The Modi-Putin summit was motivated by the need to address emerging issues in bilateral relations, as also the global trends that are impacting them. Its outcomes affirmed a shared intention to further progress bilateral relations in the areas of trade, energy and defence. The defence partnership will be reoriented to focus on joint research, co-development and joint production, providing India with an important hedge against the backdrop of its growing defence ties with the US and France.
The authors then go on to analyse the geopolitical dynamics impacting India-Russia relations, from the India-US-Russia triad to the Russia-China-India equation.
They argue that the persisting US insecurity over India-Russia relations is driven largely by an unmitigated antagonism towards Russia, which may well be further exacerbated as the Western allies face setbacks in Ukraine. In their efforts to restrict India’s foreign policy choices, the US and the collective West under-appreciate the benefits of their growing engagement with India. In the light of the disturbed and volatile global environment, India cannot afford to predicate its Russia policy on Western interests and insecurities. The converse reality is that if the West really wants to weaken the strengthening Russia-China axis, it must also encourage India to keep its ties with Russia open and positive.
The Russia-China-India equation is a more complex triangular relationship, one in which harbouring relations with one threatens to disrupt partnership between the others. The continuing economic and security distress in Europe, meanwhile, preoccupies the West, drains Russia’s strength, and furthers China’s strategic interests. There is a marked dissonance over India in Russia-China relations. A weakened Russia that is over-dependent on China is not in India’s interest; India must continue to provide Russia with a vital hedge.
The authors conclude that at an impasse dominated by US-China bipolar competition, Russia is a key balancing power and India must not forsake its own strategic interests because of the West’s antipathy towards Russia. If the West can act in its own interests to shape accommodative ties with China, it has no reason to expect considerations to be any different for India’s engagement with Russia. Furthermore, recent initiatives of Russia in East Asia are designed to carve out its own strategic space in China’s immediate periphery, while Russia’s role is also significant in projecting the narrative of the Global South and leveraging an expanded BRICS.
Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that the US attempt to define the longstanding India-Russia partnership as one where New Delhi is beholden to Russia is misplaced; India too holds its own strategic cards. It is more important than ever for the West to look beyond its self-serving narratives and grasp this reality.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. IX, Issue 17, please click “India-Russia Relations: the Geostrategic Perspective”.
