Letter from America

This survey of America’s global posture and India-US relations is based on the authors’ interactions with US Government agencies and Think Tanks in Washington D.C. from June 24-28, 2024, which shed light on current mainstream thinking inside the Beltway establishment.

As changes in global power equations gather momentum, the US remains the world’s preeminent power.  However, it finds itself at a vulnerable juncture, where its capacity to exercise unilateral power and influence is under severe challenge, and there is unprecedented turmoil in US domestic politics.

Any major decisions or further advances in India-US relations will have to await the outcome of the US presidential election, and India will certainly hope that this electoral process will be unifying for the American people.

Compared with a year ago, the authors observe that the mood in the US capital this summer was palpably more subdued, as external crises have multiplied and US adversaries have banded together to pose ever more formidable challenges.

There is continued US focus on building alliances and prevailing over adversaries, while partners remain placed in a little understood category. The sentiment on Russia is unforgiving and views on China are hardening. But beyond this US preoccupation with great power equations, the Global South evokes marginal interest. There is no consideration of accommodating emerging powers as pillars of the UN Charter-based order, while the West pursues its unilateral interests through the G7 and NATO.

The US recognises the Indo-Pacific as the world’s economic and geopolitical centre of gravity, but Asia’s under-representation in key global institutions continues to prioritise a receding Europe over emerging Asia. The US is pursuing a robust security architecture in East Asia, but in the absence of broader Indo-Pacific balancing, the US and India will be unable to optimise a mutually reinforcing role.

In analysing the prevailing American perspective on India, the authors believe that the US is still getting accustomed to dealing with a strategic partner that aspires to be an independent player in a multipolar order. Questions are raised about India’s future orientation, its omnidirectional engagement, and its relations with Russia. There is tepid appreciation of the success and deepening of India’s democracy.

However, the central element of US thinking about India today is that it is a rising power with the greatest comprehensive power potential after China; the US has a vested interest in India being able to play a larger regional and global role, and do so in partnership with the US as far as possible. The offer of controlled military technology infusion and cooperation in new and emerging technologies is designed to keep India in the US camp, and also to wean it away from close strategic ties with Russia.

The authors conclude that trust issues will continue to linger - on both sides - and will require sustained attention as India and the US try and build further on the remarkable progress in bilateral relations witnessed over the past two decades.

In the long term, the interests of India and the US will align around the need to ensure that the overall balance remains in favour of democracy, freedom and a UN Charter-based order. The bigger challenge will be to work together to strengthen the trend towards Asian multipolarity and bring about greater equilibrium in international relations. As a post-alliance mechanism for strategic cooperation along its like minded partners, success of the Quad may well hold the key.

To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. IX, Issue 16, please click “Letter from America”.