China and the strategic architecture in Asia

The US is going througha phase of political uncertainty and turmoil. The political process of presidential elections shows that there is a fundamental dissatisfaction with the internal political and economic policies that the US is pursuing. After the US presidential elections there is a possibility of a shift in the US foreign policy, because the leading presidential candidates are questioning the values adopted by America since 1945. However, there is a fundamental change already taking place where the geo-political and geo-economic importance of Asia is rising in the American establishment because of increasing interconnectedness between the American economy and the economies of the Asian countries. At present, economic growth of India, China and Indonesia has been slowing down but the demographic stagnation in western countries is pushing the world’s economic epicentre towards Asia from the West.  According to American thought processes, checks and balances in the international system are important, hence they cannot divert US attention from Maritime Asia. In the future, America is likely to pursue a balancing strategy characterised by its military and political advantages in the region. Chinese advances in the Pacific are competiting with the US, however US policy makers are always ready to engage the competitor in economic and political relations but at the same time they are preparing for potential military confrontation.

China is facing problems in sustaining the pace of its economic growth and demographic imbalances, while the US has the technological upper hand in this competition. The US is committed to its maritime presence in the region, however, third party actors/regional countries have to decide which side they want to take. America is not extending its deterrence against potential adversaries because it does not want to engage in another cold war but it will develop conventional capabilities that can credibly defeat Chinese power projection capabilities to defend interests of US allies. The future conflict zone is close to the Chinese mainland which is an advantage for China and they are augmenting it with qualitative and quantitative advances. America is trying to surmount this threat by using its technological advantages; hence it is focusing on development of unmanned autonomous systems which can be used on all platforms.

Conflict can escalate in the near future; hence China is modernising and expanding their nuclear force which will give them more options for discriminate use in an eventual conflict. If they achieve conventional military superiority in the Western Pacific and Central Pacific region backed by credible nuclear force, then American posture will shift towards deployment of nuclear arsenals in the region while upgrading military capabilities of US allies.