DPG Policy Brief
Developments in Southeast Asia: 2024
Authors Ambassador Biren Nanda
, Jayantika Rao T. V.
Date: January 03, 2025
This policy brief covers important domestic developments within the region, specifically focusing on the recent elections of new leaders in Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and Vietnam. The authors analyse the significant political leadership transitions across Southeast Asia, and their implications for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). They also highlight the increasing divergences among member states, which may affect regional cohesion and collaborative efforts.
As the competitive dynamics between the United States and China intensify, US allies such as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have boldly challenged China’s unilateral claims in the South China Sea despite potential repercussions. The authors emphasise that while the South China Sea has emerged as a critical area of vulnerability and potential conflict in the region, countries like Vietnam are unable to confront China in the same manner as the Philippines, due to their lack of security alliances with Washington.
Amid the intensifying regional conflicts, questions about ASEAN’s effectiveness have been raised. However, during the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits and Related Meetings hosted by Laos, the region witnessed a surge in diplomatic activity, with regional and global leaders convening to address these significant issues pertinent to South East Asia. The authors emphasise that these meetings are significant, especially as the area grapples with increasing maritime assertions by China, leadership changes, and the enhanced engagement of the United States through mini-lateral and bilateral arrangements. In light of these complex challenges, ASEAN continues to play a vital role in fostering dialogue and diplomacy among its member states and regional and global powers.
The authors review India's various engagements with Southeast Asia over the past year. As India marks the tenth anniversary of its "Act East Policy," it has increased diplomatic activities with member states of ASEAN through 2024, resulting in enhanced relations with several member nations.
The authors conclude that 2024 was an exceptionally active year for South East and East Asia, with significant implications for the future. Intensifying US-China competition carries the danger of increased aggressive manoeuvres by China, the impact of which will be acutely felt in South East Asia during the upcoming year.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. X, Issue 2, please click Developments in Southeast Asia: 2024”.
As the competitive dynamics between the United States and China intensify, US allies such as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have boldly challenged China’s unilateral claims in the South China Sea despite potential repercussions. The authors emphasise that while the South China Sea has emerged as a critical area of vulnerability and potential conflict in the region, countries like Vietnam are unable to confront China in the same manner as the Philippines, due to their lack of security alliances with Washington.
Amid the intensifying regional conflicts, questions about ASEAN’s effectiveness have been raised. However, during the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits and Related Meetings hosted by Laos, the region witnessed a surge in diplomatic activity, with regional and global leaders convening to address these significant issues pertinent to South East Asia. The authors emphasise that these meetings are significant, especially as the area grapples with increasing maritime assertions by China, leadership changes, and the enhanced engagement of the United States through mini-lateral and bilateral arrangements. In light of these complex challenges, ASEAN continues to play a vital role in fostering dialogue and diplomacy among its member states and regional and global powers.
The authors review India's various engagements with Southeast Asia over the past year. As India marks the tenth anniversary of its "Act East Policy," it has increased diplomatic activities with member states of ASEAN through 2024, resulting in enhanced relations with several member nations.
The authors conclude that 2024 was an exceptionally active year for South East and East Asia, with significant implications for the future. Intensifying US-China competition carries the danger of increased aggressive manoeuvres by China, the impact of which will be acutely felt in South East Asia during the upcoming year.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. X, Issue 2, please click Developments in Southeast Asia: 2024”.
