The Global Scene: A World in Turmoil

In this policy brief, the author reviews the state of global order after a year of tumultuous developments, and finds it poised precariously amidst great power confrontations, brutal conflicts of expansion and suppression, major upheavals in the political landscape of democracies, and the coalescing of authoritarian powers challenging the West. An uncertain outlook prevails for future global balances.

While the West remains predominant in terms of its cumulative power, its capacity to maintain unquestioned primacy over world order has diminished. Alienation and scepticism is growing across the vast majority of emerging nations as the West’s double standards and disregard for global norms become commonplace. The search for alternatives in gathering momentum, with the BRICS + Partners grouping now comprising 23 nations from all continents.

As the conflict in Europe drains the strength of Russia as well as the resources of Western allies supporting Ukraine, China continues to consolidate its power and grow its global influence. However, China’s emergence as the world’s factory for everything is also providing an impetus for trade protectionism and diversification.

The author observes that rampaging conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have led to widespread violations of the UN Charter, indiscriminate use of deadly force against civilians, and wanton disregard for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. This will have long term consequences for global order.

He notes that US president-elect Donald Trump stands out among Western leaders in calling for an end to ongoing conflicts, but the path to peace and stability in Europe and elsewhere will not be easy in an environment of uncompromising hostility.

Turning to political developments in Western democracies, the author examines the implications of the remarkable victory of Donald Trump and his distinctive brand of “America First” conservative populism, which appears to have displaced an era of progressive politics. The trend towards anti-establishment nationalist-populist parties is ascendant in Europe as well, as issues of stagnating economies and immigration come centre stage. In Asia, domestic political stability has received major setbacks in Japan and South Korea, which may impact their external policies.

The author analyses prospects for the US external posture under Trump, who will begin his second term with substantial public support and optimism about his promise to lead the world’s pre-eminent power to even greater national prosperity and global standing. He suggests that despite Trump’s unconventional approaches, he will invest in building a legacy of expanding America’s global power, influence and interests.

The outlook for India-US relations under the forthcoming Trump administration is moderately positive, but new terms of mutually beneficial engagement will need to be set in the areas of trade, economic relations and immigration, while key ongoing initiatives like iCET will require to be ring-fenced. 

Finally, the author reviews the outlook for India’s external engagements at a juncture when the US has emerged as India’s most consequential partner, China is its most consequential challenge, time-tested relations with Russia have been reaffirmed, and neighbourhood priorities continue to require attention.

As the world traverses an uncertain period, India’s longstanding policies of realist and independent decision making based on its sovereign interests, as well as recourse to dialogue and diplomacy, will continue to serve it well. A sharper focus on aggregating comprehensive national power will provide the backdrop for India’s strategic partnerships and initiatives over the coming year.

To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. X, Issue 1, please click “The Global Scene: A World in Turmoil”.